Moreover, according to Knutson, most models show that climate change brings a slight increase in hurricane wind intensity. As the air continues to warm due to climate change, hurricanes can hold more water vapor, producing more intense rainfall rates in a storm. In a hurricane, spiraling winds draw moist air toward the center, fueling the towering thunderstorms that surround it. The increased moisture in the air leads to more intense rainfall, especially during extreme events. Warmer air temperatures can hold more water vapor. How much water vapor the air can hold is based on its temperature. As surface temperatures rise, more liquid water evaporates from the land and ocean. This process is called “evaporation,” or when a liquid changes to a gas.Ī similar process happens at Earth’s surface.
Once the liquid water becomes hot enough, it boils and creates steam (or hot water vapor). Think of heating up a pot of water on the stove. In a warmer world, there is simply more moisture in the air in the form of gaseous water vapor. Scientists have long predicted that climate change would increase extreme rainfall events. This means that hurricanes are likely to cause more intense rain when they come ashore. He notes that “even if hurricanes themselves don’t change, the flooding from storm surge events will be made worse by sea level rise.” In addition, he says models show increases in a hurricane’s rainfall rate by 2100. Tom Knutson, senior scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, is a leading scientist on hurricanes and climate change. Yellow and orange are the warm ocean waters, and blue and white are the hurricane’s tall, cool cloud tops. Thermal (heat) image view of Category 5 Hurricane Maria in 2017, as seen by NASA’s Terra satellite. These include sophisticated global climate models, scientific understanding of how hurricanes form and evolve, and expanding observational records of past hurricane activity. However, important tools are in place to help scientists tackle it. Thus, trying to determine how climate change will impact hurricanes may seem like an impossible task. Large-scale changes in the climate, such as El Niño and La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, also impact hurricanes over an entire season. With so many moving parts, forecasting a hurricane is hard. If it moves over land, it brings with it a fury of strong wind, drenching rain, dangerous storm surge and sometimes tornadoes. Where a hurricane goes depends mainly on the large-scale weather patterns around it at the time. Once a hurricane forms, scientists shift their focus to where it is going and how strong it will be when it gets there. The same is true for hurricanes: If any of the four main ingredients changes too much, the storm cannot form or will weaken. Change any ingredient too much and the cookie will be too flat, too dry, too crumbly, etc. Just like making a perfect cookie, a hurricane needs all the ingredients for it to grow. a pre-existing disturbance (e.g., a cluster of thunderstorms).Hurricanes need four main ingredients to form and strengthen: Similarly, hurricanes get pulled apart in high vertical wind shear, making it hard for them to grow and strengthen. If you push the top and bottom in different directions or with different levels of strength, the tower will topple (i.e., high vertical wind shear). If you push the top and bottom in the same direction and with the same strength, the tower can stay intact as it moves along the floor (i.e., low vertical wind shear). Think of the center of a hurricane as a tower of blocks that you push with your hands. This term refers to the change in wind speed and/or direction as you travel upwards in the atmosphere. With that said, let’s talk about some science behind hurricanes and how they may change due to global warming. However, “hurricanes” will be used as a general term in this article to include tropical storms, which are tropical cyclones below hurricane intensity. Note: Technically, hurricanes are tropical cyclones that have winds of more than 74 miles per hour (about 120 kilometers per hour). This is because they are large, rotating storms that need tropical conditions to form - so they originate mostly in the tropics. Called by many names depending on where you live (hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones), scientists call these storms tropical cyclones. Additionally, the global frequency of storms may decrease or remain unchanged, but hurricanes that form are more likely to become intense.įrom June 1 to November 30, many Americans turn their eyes to the tropics - not just because they’re dreaming of beach vacations, but because it’s hurricane season.
Due to global warming, global climate models predict hurricanes will likely cause more intense rainfall and have an increased coastal flood risk due to higher storm surge caused by rising seas.
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